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Abstract

Background: Since the New Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) can also be spread by asymptomatic individuals, identifying asymptomatic carriers is critical in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to describe the COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test positivity rate sent before the operation / interventional procedure in asymptomatic individuals and determine an estimated time for the pandemic’s decay time.

Methods: All the patients over the age of 18 who were obtained the COVID-19 PCR test before the operation or interventional procedure between July 1 and October 31, 2020 were included. The patients were divided into two groups according to the periods when the peak was experienced or not.

Results: 1070 patients were included in the study. PCR positivity was detected in 55 (5.14%) of the patients. The mean case incidence rate was 0.76% (2/263) in the months when the study was conducted, and there was no COVID-19 peak, and 6.57% (53/807) in the months when the peak was observed. These rates were taken as a reference for the months with and without a peak. The time to reach 67%, which is accepted as the herd immunity limit, was calculated by adding 6.57% to the months corresponding to peak periods with 20-day periods starting from April 1, and the rate of 0.76% to the other months. Since there were two peaks after April 2020, the mass immunity rate reached until today has been calculated. If the COVID-19 peak would not happen since this date, the possible pandemic attenuation time was predicted as March 2022, and if only one peak would happen, then predicted as May 2021.

Conclusion: The incidence fluctuates with the restrictions, the risk of re-infection, the virus being open to new mutations, and the initiation of vaccination programs make it difficult to predict the pandemic attenuation time.

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